This is definitely encouraging. Remember, this is a very aggressive trade and we are assuming that we are entering at the start of the bull run. Good part is that the stop loss of 248 was not hit and the volumes also increased. We shall maintain the same stop loss and see how the traders are trading.
Monday, June 17, 2013
0002BHEL17June2013 – A good session
As predicted in the last analysis, the scrip has started its journey upwards. The volumes were encouraging but should be taken with a pinch of salt since today was also the RBI’s policy review. We can expect the BHEL to travel slowly now and reach the first target of 188-190 before this week concludes. We can also now comfortably take the stop loss up to 175.
Saturday, June 15, 2013
0001BHEL16June2013 – Bet on it!
After a hiatus from tech analysis due to my job, I have come back with a bang. And this stock brings promises of a 30 point gain. Right now, the stock is trading at a 4 month low of mid 170s. First target of 188-190 and second target of 197-200 will be a good bet. Since, these are the levels that the stock has skirted just twice in 4 months we need to keep a tight stoploss of 170.
0001IOCL16Jun2013 – Bull expected?!
This stock has been trading at levels which were dominant majorly last year. From the start of this year it had been very bullish till last month from where the stock is just searching for the bottom of the bearish run. This is a bit aggressive buy since we yet don’t have an established bull run. Yes, we do have a well established bear trend that is evident on the charts.
Having said that, if we enter the stock 255, then we can expect the stock to run towards 290-295 and then further to 305-310. Keep a stoploss of 248 though. Like I always say, DO NOT forget the stoploss, especially when we are entering at the plausible bottom of a bearish trend.
Tuesday, May 28, 2013
0005TataSteel28thMay2013 – A good bull run
This is a good bull run from the support of 294-297, TATA steel has passed the resistance of 320 and is showing no signs of slowing down. This is good news for the bulls. We can expect the scrip to now move ahead 334-336 range giving a cool 30 point gain in almost a week. The only thing now is to keep trailing stoplosses lest you want to burn all the profits with your ego. 
0005CoalIndia28thMay2013 – 1st target reached..Yesss!
As mentioned in my last post, Coal India has reached the first target of 310 yesterday. Surprisingly, it also hit the second target that I had mentioned of 320 today in a weird gap. I think this might be because of the Offer for Sale which every analyst is talking about. Since we have already booked our expected profits, lets standby at the rink and see how things go in the coming days. As of now, almost all the analyst are recommending a buy @300.
0009TitanInd28thMay2013 – A trap for the bulls
This is clearly a trap for the bulls. I would not advise any buy for Titan. It has already passed its resistance of 286-288 today. We will have to wait for the scrip to cool off. 277 is the price area which will be interesting to look at to understand if Titan goes north or south.
0006RelianceInd28thMay2013 – It’s in the supply zone
I am really happy with what I had seen in the charts the last time. You can see how the stock behaved predictably as mentioned in my earlier post. Right now, the stock is in the supply zone and is trading at the resistance of mid 840s. In the short term this can go up to 855-860 levels or come down to 800 too!. I would not recommend entering at this time.
0008HDIL28thMay2013 – Bounce
A good opportunity to buy shares in HDIL. One can look at entering @50.5-51 with a target of 59-60 in the coming week. Swing traders should also factor in the expiry date of 30th May for the near term options. Look at the rollover strike prices.
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
0004CoalIndia14thMay2013 – Good time to get in
Like Tata Steel, even Coal India is at a support zone with a 15-20 points of upside potential. Stoploss recommended is at 292 and first target at 310 and second target at 320. Interestingly, this is exactly the same thing for TATA Steel. Any connections?
0004TataSteel14May2013 – Dipped to the support
From my last update on 10th May, the stock has definitely travelled south to test the support levels today. In fact, it went a bit further and trapped the bears at the support of 296. I think its a good time to buy Tata Steel at the current market price with a first target of 310 and then 320. Stoploss to be put at 292 for the start and then increased as the market pulls it upwards.
0005RelianceInd14thMay2013 – Bears’re happy
This is an interesting chart for Reliance Industries. It has been clearly an upward trend for this stock with 3 repeated highs in the recent sessions. If the stock goes below 793-795 then we can expect it to go further down to 775, whereas, if it bounces from 793, then there is a high chance for the stock to touch 840-845 levels soon!!!
0007HDIL14thMay2013 – Sideways movement
I think the market is waiting for something. I don’t know. Why is this scrip moving sideways? Trading volumes have also gone down. I am not even able to look into any analyst research as well. I would be wary to comment on this and would love to wait and watch … maybe it’s the calm before the storm
Friday, May 10, 2013
0006HDIL10May2013 – 15mins of bloodbath and 15mins of glory
A very interesting day and a super lucky trade for me. I had bought double the shares by accident and have already enjoyed the fruits of my mistake.
See how the biggies tried to pull the stock down one last time till it went up to the first target of 57-60. The whole of morning the stock was travelling sideways and then there was a touchdown to 54.5 where loads of traders' stoploss got hit. Soon after the scrip went to the expected resistance of 57. A good analysis always helps put conviction to your ideas, even though I was shitting bricks during the spike down. ;-)
0004RelianceInd10May2013 – Stoploss hit but it might bounce
As I had predicted, the stock has hit stoploss. The trend has definitely weakened and we will have to wait till the stock reaches its support of 810-815. From here, the chances of Reliance getting up to 840 is high, but the stock may tank as well. Check the derivatives data as they are suggesting a bullish tre
0007TitanInd10May2013 – Steam left, this is good
This is great...I had advised to be careful of a bearsih trend but now we can see that it was just a small dip and the scrip is poised to touch 300 levels. Today, the stock started at 277 to go to intraday high of 288.95. Trailing stoploss 280-284 will be a good way to protect your profits.
0003CoalIndia10thMay2013 – A long black candle
Its been a long black candle and the scrip almost touched the support zone of 296-297. The scrip started at 310 but quickly scaled down to 299, a 10 point decrease. We can expect a play at this level for couple of sessions to come up again to 310 level. Its a good time to buyin.
0003TataSteel09May2013 – Wait and watch
The market is moving sideways…its still moving between 318-320. We cannot estimate whether it will scale up or pull down. So the estimate is wait and watch.
Wednesday, May 8, 2013
0003RelianceInd08May2013 – Bears trying to pull down
Logically the scrip is expected to go and touch 840-845 levels which is the next resistance. But today the bears tried to pull the stock down. So I would recommend to keep a trailing stoploss of 821 (just below the last low). If it goes up, good, but if it's pulled down, you can save on some profits from shaving off.
0006TitanInd08May2013 – A weak trend
Please note that the bullish trend has considerably weekend in the last couple of trading sessions. Also, the stock is at a resistance level of 275-277. All bulls need to be cautious with a tight stoploss of 275. Another thing about bollinger, which I have realised is that the moment the scrip falls after a breakthrough the roof, its a good indication of a weakening trend.
0005TitanInd07May2013 – Bollinger held good
The very loose strategy of bollinger has held true this time. The stock has indeed continued its run upwards. But we need to keep in mind that the upswing has slowed down. It has reached the brief resistance of 279-281. Its a good time to short the stock and let it cool down.
0004TitanInd30Apr2013 – Bulls on parade
Clearly this is a bull run for the stock. My current fad is to look at how the candles cut the bollinger chart. Here its a bullish candle which has done that in the last week and again it got repeated yesterday. We can definitely see the scrip take a 6-7 points upswing. A comfortable buy will be @ 263-264 with a target of 280 and a stoploss of 255.
0003TitanInd26Apr2013 – Bearish move to be looked after
We can expect to see some volatility in this stock even during the bearish movement. The FY 13 results are to be discussed on 3rd May. Also, the falling gold prices are going to help Titan and other organized players differentiate themselves from the market with their hedging strategies. So keep your eyes open for some positive cues. I am personally expecting the stock to travel a bit south before making its journey upwards.
0002TitanInd18Apr2013 – Profit realised
As predicted, today the stock did touch 255 and I did liquidate my stock to get some sweet profits. Unfortunately, it didn’t stop @ 255 and rallied till 264.80 and I did loose some opportunity. I would say bad reading of the charts. Here you go, as promised the obvious rally of Titan Ind…
0001TitanInd18Apr2013 – Good times for Titan
Again an interesting find from my share market mentor Lawrence, this stock has a potential to move almost 9% or 20 points from 235 to 255. I am currently working on my dad’s computer which doesn’t have chart nexus. Some weird problem with the installation. So won’t be posting the charts. But one should look at this stock for the short term.
0002TataSteel07May2013 – Target reached but still loads of steam
Guys, this is very interesting. Again, we can see the candle sticking through a piped bollinger. As per what I have read, the stock is hence expected to go up. Likewise, the stock indeed has gone up and covered the resistance of 318-320 and not stopped!! We can now expect the stock to run to the next stop of 337-340. This is indeed very exciting. Of all the people who had come in @300 can now easily pocket 40 points from the trade.
Look at the charts…look how they shine for you…
0002CoalIndia08thMay2013 – Happy with my analysis
I am indeed very happy with how the scrip has exactly followed my analysis. Feels nice and confident. You can see my first post on coal india and compare the charts.
By the way, Coal India is at a support zone now and it would be wise to see how the markets are going to react to the news on government’s divestiture plans
0001CoalIndia19thApril2013 – Taking a chance
With the profit from Titan, I am venturing into CoalIndia. Change in the portfolio mix, but who is concerned about the sector anyways!.
I feel that its a bit premature to predict Coal India as of 18th Apr2013, but my hunch is that its going to go north. I am expecting a target of 310-320 (yes its a big range) in the coming sessions. Entry to be put @296 and stoploss of 290
0003Bajajhind12Apr2013 – Ethanol bringing the smiles but…
With the Ethanol prices getting fixed, the sugar stocks are expected to have some positive movement. Having said that, the trapped bears had really tried hard to push the stock back to 18 levels. They were not successful, but they tried. Don’t take them lightly. Look out for another white candle to gain confidence in the upswing.
0002Bajajhind8Apr2013 – what a bloodbath?!
Ok…so this is very interesting. The fight between the bulls and bears I think was better than the IPL. All I can say is that the bears ruled the market and we can clearly expect a downturn at least till mid or early 19s. Only good part was a very healthy volumes of traders.
So as a swing trader who only does plain vanilla trade, we need to steer clear from this stock till something good is expected.
0002RelianceInd07May2013 – first resistance passed?
Interestingly, the scrip has covered the first resistance mentioned in my earlier post. After the 815-820, the stock is showing no signs of stopping and is expected to touch the second resistance zone of 840. Lets keep watching. I am glad that my analysis has come true in part. The part where the stock will come down to 765 has unfortunately been false. This would have caused some traders to loose on opportunity cost. Nevertheless, its a bull market for this scrip. Capitalise on it.
0001RelianceInd26Apr2013 – Rely on reliance?
This is relatively a new stock that I am going to follow. It is interesting cause of its healthy volumes and hence the liquidity. Also, the glamour of the Ambani brothers also brings some good momentum in this stock. Currently the stock is expected to be bearish for another couple of sessions before picking up again.
In number terms, we can expect the stock to hit 765-775 range which is a decent support level to climb to 815-820 and if the D-gang has its way then we can expect it to touch the upper levels of 840-850 too. You can see me nervous when I use too many indicators as in the below chart ;-(
0005HDIL07May2013 – Bought double by accident, but I am not complaining
One of the first rules of being stupid in the market is to enter into something you don't know. I tried my hand in intraday by shorting HDIL and of course as expected I burnt my fingers. I panicked and ended up buying double the shares. Fortunately, I am expecting the stock to go up to 60 and possibly 65. This is exactly inline with my earlier analysis which you can read here
0004HDIL26Apr2013 – And it has started going down
Even though today we saw HDIL go down by Rs.6 I still feel there is steam left in this stock. We can expect it to touch 60-65 levels in the short term. Mr. Hemant Thukral from Aditya Birla Money also has some similar views which you can see here. Nevertheless the stock may touch a support a weak support zone of 51-52 and hence the stoploss should be below that range.
0003HDIL22Apr2013 – it has reached just short of 60
I need to learn to not be mathematical in my approach. When I say 60, even if the scrip has touched 59,25, i need to consider them as a target achieved. Another thing I want to learn from my guru Lawrence is the trailing stoploss. I had been watching this stock since morning when it was sluggish @52. By the end of the day, it quickly climbed to 59.25.
I entered @46 now am going to rampup my stoploss to 55 and a target of 60+. THIS IS EXCITING!!!
0002HDIL18Apr2013 – Errr…Biting nails
So I invested @49.28 expecting the scrip to run and embrace 60. Somehow, its shying away from my goal. Prayers are on…waiting for more bulls to enter the market as predicted by Tulsian baba
0001TataSteel30Apr2013 – Expecting a 20 point upswing in the near future
Tata steel recently closed their UK R&D shop in a bid to cut costs. Even if you look at the stock, its at a all time low. I am expecting the stock to recover after the recent low of 295-297 to hit the 32o levels. I was impatient and have bought the stock @302.25. Lets see how the traders are looking at the market.
0001BajajHind5Apr2013 – My dad has this stock
Technically, this stock is almost at a supply zone and can be expected to have a price fall before starting a possible rally upwards. Governments decontrolling of sugar may get investors’ focus on this sector. I would suggest an entry @ 20-20.5 levels with a target of 22-22.5 and further 24-24.5 (a well tested support level in Jan as well as Jun ’12). Today, the stock has spiked once @24,9, which is a positive sign for all the investors who plan to get into this stock @20-20.5 levels.
0001HDIL16April2013 – A stock to look out for
Thank you Lawrence for bringing this beautiful stock to my attention. Apart from the other stocks which you have mentioned for this week, HDIL seems to have the max bull expectation. I totally agree with your analysis of Support @45 and Resistance @60. Hope we can see some good run in the coming 2-3 trading sessions. For people who have not seen this mouth-watering chart, here it is.
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